Opinion | The Big Picture: AI, Crypto, and a Shifting Investment Landscape
By Jan Gleisner, CEO | Hafnia Financial Inc. Artificial Intelligence isn’t coming — it has already arrived. And if recent earnings reports, corporate capital expenditures, and M&A activity are any indication, the largest players in the global economy are doubling down. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Apple have collectively poured over $200 billion into AI infrastructure, data centers, and talent acquisition in the past 18 months alone, according to PitchBook and public 10-Q filings from each firm (PitchBook, 2024 AI Infrastructure Report (1); Microsoft Q2 FY2024 Earnings (2)). This race is about owning the rails of tomorrow’s digital economy. OpenAI, backed by Microsoft, and Anthropic, which has secured multi-billion-dollar funding from both Google and Amazon, have demonstrated that having deep pockets isn’t just an advantage — it’s a requirement. “The barrier to entry in foundation models is increasing, not decreasing,” notes a 2024 report from Stanford’s Institute for Human-Centered AI (Stanford HAI Foundation Model Transparency Index (3)). As AI embeds itself in everything from supply chains to search engines to customer service bots, the investing public is grappling with a hard truth: this is an oligopoly. For now, betting on the “big boys” may be the only sensible strategy. As Goldman Sachs notes, AI spending is becoming “central to capital allocation decisions across the S&P 500” (Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, July 2024 (4)). At the same time, another technology once seen as fringe is moving toward the mainstream: cryptocurrency. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s begrudging approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 marked a turning point (SEC Press Release, January 2024 (5)). While regulatory ambiguity still plagues the industry — just ask Coinbase or Ripple — the direction of travel is becoming clearer. Congress is considering bipartisan bills like the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21)(6), which would give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight of digital commodities, reducing jurisdictional overlap with the SEC (Congress.gov – H.R.4763 FIT21 (6)). “The U.S. is finally starting to take crypto seriously as a financial instrument, not just a speculative sideshow,” says Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association (Fortune, Jan 2024(7)). Major financial institutions seem to agree. Fidelity, BlackRock, and JPMorgan are all quietly building infrastructure for digital assets (Bloomberg, March 2024 (8)). Meanwhile, consumer-facing fintechs like PayPal and Robinhood are expanding their crypto offerings, even rolling out stablecoin-based payments (PayPal Press Release, Aug 2024(9)). The broader economic picture remains messy. Global trade policy is in a state of flux. The U.S.-China relationship continues to veer between confrontation and cautious engagement, as evidenced by tensions over semiconductors and rare earth minerals (Council on Foreign Relations – U.S.-China Trade Tracker (10)). Meanwhile, tariff battles and supply chain reshoring initiatives — especially under the CHIPS and Science Act — are altering long-held assumptions (U.S. Department of Commerce – CHIPS Act Updates, 2024 (11)). In this environment, the classic passive approach may no longer be enough. “Broad market exposure masks a lot of underperformance,” says Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab. “This is a stock-picker’s market now.” (Schwab Market Perspective, July 2024(12)). Themes that defy the old playbook — like AI infrastructure, regulated digital assets, or nearshoring beneficiaries in Mexico and Southeast Asia — demand a more tailored, active approach. Patterns are breaking. Assumptions are failing. Precision is not optional. References Pitch Book. (2024). AI Infrastructure Report. (2024). Q2 FY2024 Earnings Report. Stanford HAI. (2024). Foundation Model Transparency Index. Goldman Sachs. (2024). Global Investment Research, July 2024. S. SEC. (2024). Approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Press Release, January 2024. gov. (2024). H.R.4763 – FIT21 Act. (2024). Crypto Becomes a Financial Instrument. January 2024. (2024). Wall Street Builds Crypto Infrastructure. March 2024. (2024). Launch of Stablecoin Payments. Press Release, August 2024. Council on Foreign Relations. (2024). U.S.-China Trade Tracker. S. Department of Commerce. (2024). CHIPS and Science Act Implementation. (2024). Market Perspective, July 2024. DISCLOSURE: HAFNIA FINANCIAL, INC., is a registered Investment Adviser. Information presented, and general correspondence are provided for educational purposes only and not intended to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. This correspondence and information are not intended to provide investment, tax, or legal advice. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy. Insurance products and services are offered and sold through Jan Gleisner an individually licensed and appointed insurance agent, CA Ins Lic # 0D77385.
