Interest Rates are Decreasing while Unemployment Rates are Increasing
Recent developments in the U.S. economy have heightened the potential of a recession, driven by a combination of decreasing interest rates and rising unemployment. The Federal Reserve’s July 2024 report indicated a spike in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. This has fueled concerns as employers added fewer jobs than expected. The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, a tool that signals the onset of a recession when the unemployment rate increases by 0.5 percentage points or more over a short period, recently hit 0.53%, further reinforcing fears of an economic downturn. The situation is exacerbated by declining interest rates, which are often a response to slowing economic growth but can also signal an impending recession if coupled with rising unemployment. Adding to these concerns is the Buffett Indicator, which compares the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks to the nation’s GDP. Currently, this indicator suggests that the market is significantly overvalued, another potential red flag for investors worried about economic stability. The convergence of these factors—rising unemployment, falling interest rates, and the elevated Buffett Indicator—suggests that the U.S. economy may be on the brink of a recession, though it remains to be seen whether these indicators will fully materialize into a broader economic downturn. We have been working on and still are repositioning your portfolio as high growth is not to be expected in the near future. You will see a small mix of small/mid-cap being added as those companies typically borrow money. Since money is becoming cheaper to access they could potentially benefit. FYI, big companies such as Amazon, Google, etc. have so much money on hand that they typically have little concern about interest rates as they self-fund their projects. Hafnia Financial, Inc. is a registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Information presented is for educational purposes only and is not intended to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Insurance products and services are offered and sold through Jan Gleisner an individually licensed and appointed insurance agent. CA Ins Lic # 0D77385.
Money is Green (Not Red or Blue)
Money Is Green (Not Red or Blue) In the whirlwind of election campaigns, it’s easy to get swept away by the flood of promises made by politicians. Each candidate paints a picture of the future in vivid hues, promising prosperity, job growth, and economic stability. However, as investors, we must remember that money is green—not blue or red. While political rhetoric may capture headlines and shape public sentiment, it should not dictate your investment strategy. Political campaigns are filled with noise. Candidates from both sides make bold claims about how their policies will either rescue or ruin the economy. This noise can be particularly distracting for investors trying to make sense of their portfolios in a volatile environment. But history has shown us time and again that the stock market is more resilient and less tied to political outcomes than we might think. The economy, influenced by global events, technological advancements, and consumer behavior, does not always move in lockstep with the promises or actions of politicians. The economy and the stock market are two different entities. While economic indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation are important, they do not always correlate directly with stock market returns. The market is forward-looking, often pricing in future expectations rather than current realities. A booming economy does not guarantee soaring stock prices, just as a sluggish economy does not always lead to a market downturn. Therefore, we focus on what makes sense for your money, not what the economy or politicians dictate. Your investment strategy should be guided by your financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon, not the latest political headlines. Diversification, long-term planning, and disciplined investing are the cornerstones of a successful portfolio—regardless of who holds office. While staying informed about potential policy changes that could impact specific industries or sectors is important, reacting impulsively to political developments can lead to costly mistakes. In conclusion, while politicians may color their promises in shades of blue or red, your money remains green. The noise of political campaigns should not overshadow the fundamentals of sound investing. By focusing on what truly matters—your financial well-being and long-term goals—we are here to help you navigate the ups and downs of the market with confidence, no matter who is in power. Remember, in the world of investing, it’s not about choosing sides; it’s about making informed decisions that align with your financial objectives. Hafnia Financial, Inc. is a registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Insurance products and services are offered and sold through Jan Gleisner an individually licensed and appointed insurance agent. CA Ins Lic # 0D77385.
